{
  "title": "AVMV vs. SPY: Valuation, Factor Exposure, AI, and Return Scenarios",
  "path": "/research/avmv-vs-spy",
  "publishedAt": "2026-10-13",
  "dataAsOf": "2026-10-12",
  "portfolioSnapshots": {
    "AVMV": {
      "name": "Avantis U.S. Mid Cap Value ETF",
      "inceptionDate": "2023-11-07",
      "characteristicsAsOf": "2026-08-31",
      "priceEarnings": 16.51,
      "priceBook": 2.62,
      "weightedAverageMarketCapUsdBillions": 28.43,
      "holdings": 299,
      "expenseRatioPct": 0.2,
      "ytdNavReturnPct": 8.07,
      "performanceAsOf": "2026-09-30",
      "top10WeightPct": 12.94,
      "top10AsOf": "2026-06-30"
    },
    "SPY": {
      "name": "State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust",
      "inceptionDate": "1993-01-22",
      "characteristicsAsOf": "2026-10-12",
      "priceEarnings": 25.13,
      "priceBook": 5.4,
      "weightedAverageMarketCapUsdBillions": 1706.3711,
      "holdings": 504,
      "expenseRatioPct": 0.0945,
      "ytdNavReturnPct": 12.65,
      "performanceAsOf": "2026-09-30",
      "top10WeightPct": 39.04,
      "top10AsOf": "2026-10-12",
      "estimatedThreeToFiveYearEpsGrowthPct": 22.17
    }
  },
  "sectorWeights": {
    "AVMV": {
      "asOf": "2026-06-30",
      "weights": {
        "Consumer Discretionary": 15.53,
        "Financials": 23.89,
        "Energy": 12.45,
        "Consumer Staples": 8.21,
        "Industrials": 18.55,
        "Communication Services": 1.46,
        "Materials": 4.98,
        "Information Technology": 7.22,
        "Health Care": 6.33,
        "Utilities": 0.57,
        "Real Estate": 0.79
      }
    },
    "SPY": {
      "asOf": "2026-10-12",
      "weights": {
        "Consumer Discretionary": 8.74,
        "Financials": 11.52,
        "Energy": 3.58,
        "Consumer Staples": 4.58,
        "Industrials": 7.99,
        "Communication Services": 9.79,
        "Materials": 1.62,
        "Information Technology": 39.27,
        "Health Care": 9.27,
        "Utilities": 1.94,
        "Real Estate": 1.7
      }
    }
  },
  "factorPersistence": [
    {
      "factor": "Small cap vs. large cap",
      "oneYearPct": 55,
      "fiveYearPct": 58,
      "tenYearPct": 68,
      "sampleStart": "1927-06",
      "sampleEnd": "2025-12"
    },
    {
      "factor": "Value vs. growth",
      "oneYearPct": 59,
      "fiveYearPct": 69,
      "tenYearPct": 78,
      "sampleStart": "1926-07",
      "sampleEnd": "2025-12"
    },
    {
      "factor": "High vs. low profitability",
      "oneYearPct": 66,
      "fiveYearPct": 82,
      "tenYearPct": 90,
      "sampleStart": "1963-07",
      "sampleEnd": "2025-12"
    }
  ],
  "aiContext": {
    "organizationalAiAdoptionPct2025": 88,
    "usPrivateAiInvestmentUsdBillions2025": 285.88,
    "projectedGlobalDataCenterElectricityTwh2030": 945,
    "usDataCenterShareOfElectricityDemandGrowthTo2030": "nearly half"
  },
  "returnModel": {
    "formula": "((1 + epsGrowth) * (terminalPE / startingPE)^(1 / years) - 1) + distributionYieldAssumption - expenseRatio",
    "distributionYieldAssumptionPct": {
      "AVMV": 1.1,
      "SPY": 1.1
    },
    "startingPriceEarnings": {
      "AVMV": 16.51,
      "SPY": 25.13
    },
    "expenseRatioPct": {
      "AVMV": 0.2,
      "SPY": 0.0945
    },
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "id": "ai-rents-concentrated",
        "label": "AI rents stay concentrated",
        "description": "SPY sustains a large earnings-growth advantage and most of its valuation premium; AVMV grows slowly and ends at a lower multiple.",
        "fiveYear": {
          "AVMV": { "epsGrowthPct": 4.5, "terminalPE": 15, "annualizedReturnPct": 3.41 },
          "SPY": { "epsGrowthPct": 11, "terminalPE": 24, "annualizedReturnPct": 10.99 }
        },
        "tenYear": {
          "AVMV": { "epsGrowthPct": 5.5, "terminalPE": 15.5, "annualizedReturnPct": 5.74 },
          "SPY": { "epsGrowthPct": 8, "terminalPE": 23, "annualizedReturnPct": 8.05 }
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "gradual-diffusion",
        "label": "Gradual AI diffusion",
        "description": "AI remains important to megacaps while productivity and capital-spending benefits spread more broadly; relative valuations partly normalize.",
        "fiveYear": {
          "AVMV": { "epsGrowthPct": 7, "terminalPE": 17, "annualizedReturnPct": 8.53 },
          "SPY": { "epsGrowthPct": 8.5, "terminalPE": 23, "annualizedReturnPct": 7.6 }
        },
        "tenYear": {
          "AVMV": { "epsGrowthPct": 6.5, "terminalPE": 17, "annualizedReturnPct": 7.71 },
          "SPY": { "epsGrowthPct": 6.5, "terminalPE": 22, "annualizedReturnPct": 6.1 }
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "broad-earnings-catch-up",
        "label": "Broad earnings/value catch-up",
        "description": "Earnings growth broadens toward cyclical and physical-economy companies while SPY's valuation premium contracts more materially.",
        "fiveYear": {
          "AVMV": { "epsGrowthPct": 9, "terminalPE": 18.5, "annualizedReturnPct": 12.41 },
          "SPY": { "epsGrowthPct": 7, "terminalPE": 21, "annualizedReturnPct": 4.23 }
        },
        "tenYear": {
          "AVMV": { "epsGrowthPct": 7.5, "terminalPE": 18.5, "annualizedReturnPct": 9.63 },
          "SPY": { "epsGrowthPct": 5.5, "terminalPE": 21, "annualizedReturnPct": 4.63 }
        }
      }
    ]
  },
  "boundaries": [
    "Portfolio metrics are source-dated and are not a same-day accounting identity.",
    "AVMV's live history begins in November 2023; long-horizon factor evidence uses external research-index proxies.",
    "Historical factor frequencies do not establish that AVMV will realize those premiums.",
    "Return scenarios are assumption-driven sensitivity analysis, not forecasts, price targets, or investment recommendations.",
    "The AI section separates direct supplier economics from second-order infrastructure, power, and productivity channels."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "avantis-avmv-product-page",
      "title": "Avantis U.S. Mid Cap Value ETF product page",
      "publisher": "Avantis Investors",
      "url": "https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-investments/en-us/avantis-us-mid-cap-value-etf/"
    },
    {
      "id": "avantis-avmv-2026q2-fact-sheet",
      "title": "Avantis U.S. Mid Cap Value ETF quarterly fact sheet",
      "publisher": "Avantis Investors",
      "url": "https://res.avantisinvestors.com/docs/avantis-us-mid-cap-value-avmv-etf-fact-sheet.pdf"
    },
    {
      "id": "state-street-spy-product-page",
      "title": "State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust product page",
      "publisher": "State Street Investment Management",
      "url": "https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy"
    },
    {
      "id": "dimensional-factor-frequency-2026",
      "title": "How Often Do Small Cap, Value, and High Profitability Outperform?",
      "publisher": "Dimensional Fund Advisors",
      "url": "https://www.dimensional.com/chmedia/86320/source/download/how-often-do-small-cap-value-and-high-profitability-outperform.pdf"
    },
    {
      "id": "iea-energy-and-ai",
      "title": "Energy and AI",
      "publisher": "International Energy Agency",
      "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-and-ai/executive-summary"
    },
    {
      "id": "stanford-ai-index-2026",
      "title": "The 2026 AI Index Report — Economy",
      "publisher": "Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence",
      "url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/ai-index/2026-ai-index-report/economy"
    }
  ]
}