{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "methodology": "Discounted value of illustrative 2030 annual shareholder cash flow, using scenario operating margins, replacement spending, share counts, terminal cash-flow multiples and a 10% required return.",
  "title": "Meta Platforms Q3 2026 capital intensity and 2030 valuation scenarios",
  "dataAsOf": "2026-10-22",
  "earningsReleaseDate": "2026-10-21",
  "priceObservation": {
    "date": "2026-10-22",
    "closeUsd": 648.85,
    "weightedAvgDilutedQ3SharesB": 2.573,
    "illustrativeMarketCapB": 1669.49
  },
  "reported": {
    "q32026": {
      "revenueB": 64.601,
      "revenueQ32025B": 51.242,
      "advertisingRevenueB": 63.061,
      "adImpressionsYoYPct": 10,
      "adPriceYoYPct": 14,
      "dailyActivePeopleB": 3.64,
      "reportedOperatingIncomeB": 12.988,
      "legalSettlementChargeB": 9.89,
      "operatingIncomeExLegalChargeB": 22.878,
      "operatingMarginExLegalPct": 35.41,
      "operatingCashFlowB": 32.786,
      "cashPpeB": 33.942,
      "financeLeasePrincipalB": 0.964,
      "freeCashFlowB": -2.12,
      "yoyFreeCashFlowQ32025B": 10.625,
      "depreciationB": 7.154,
      "sbcB": 7.363,
      "roic": null
    },
    "nineMonths2026": {
      "revenueB": 181.712,
      "operatingCashFlowB": 96.873,
      "ppeCashSpendB": 83.055,
      "financeLeasePrincipalB": 2.769,
      "freeCashFlowB": 11.049
    },
    "fy2025": {
      "revenueB": 200.966,
      "operatingIncomeB": 83.276,
      "freeCashFlowB": 43.585,
      "capexIncludingFinanceLeasesB": 72.22
    },
    "balanceSheetSep2026": {
      "cashAndMarketableB": 82.449,
      "longTermDebtB": 80.922,
      "netCashBeforeLeasesB": 1.527
    }
  },
  "companyGuidance": {
    "q42026RevenueLowB": 73,
    "q42026RevenueHighB": 76,
    "fy2026ExpenseLowB": 175,
    "fy2026ExpenseHighB": 179,
    "fy2026CapexIncludingFinanceLeasesLowB": 135,
    "fy2026CapexIncludingFinanceLeasesHighB": 145,
    "fy2026RealityLabsLossLowB": 18,
    "fy2026RealityLabsLossHighB": 19,
    "fy2027RealityLabsLossApproxB": 15,
    "fy2027TotalCapex": null
  },
  "derived2026": {
    "revenueMidpointB": 256.212,
    "reportedOperatingIncomeMidpointB": 79.212,
    "legalChargeExOperatingIncomeMidpointB": 89.102,
    "legalChargeExMarginPct": 34.78
  },
  "valuation": {
    "modelAsOf": "2026-10-22",
    "terminalDate": "2030-12-31",
    "horizonYears": 4.19,
    "requiredReturnPct": 10,
    "interimCashDistributionsIncluded": false,
    "terminalSharesIn2026EquivalentEconomicUnits": true,
    "formula": "(2030 owner cash flow proxy × terminal multiple) / 2030 2026-equivalent economic shares / (1 + required return)^horizonYears",
    "ownerCashProxyFormula": "2030 revenue × operating margin × (1−cash tax rate) − after-tax net financing burden + depreciation − assumed sustaining capex",
    "cases": [
      {
        "id": "bear",
        "label": "Constrained returns",
        "revenue2030B": 340,
        "operatingMarginPct": 30,
        "cashTaxPct": 18,
        "afterTaxFinancingBurdenB": 3,
        "depreciationB": 90,
        "sustainingCapexB": 105,
        "terminalMultiple": 18,
        "terminalSharesB": 2.72,
        "revenueCagrFrom2026Pct": 7.33,
        "operatingIncomeB": 102,
        "afterTaxEarningsB": 80.64,
        "ownerCashFlowProxyB": 65.64,
        "terminalEquityValueB": 1181.52,
        "presentValuePerShare": 291.36
      },
      {
        "id": "base",
        "label": "Ad strength with normalizing capex",
        "revenue2030B": 390,
        "operatingMarginPct": 37,
        "cashTaxPct": 18,
        "afterTaxFinancingBurdenB": 2.5,
        "depreciationB": 90,
        "sustainingCapexB": 90,
        "terminalMultiple": 22,
        "terminalSharesB": 2.65,
        "revenueCagrFrom2026Pct": 11.07,
        "operatingIncomeB": 144.3,
        "afterTaxEarningsB": 115.826,
        "ownerCashFlowProxyB": 115.826,
        "terminalEquityValueB": 2548.172,
        "presentValuePerShare": 644.98
      },
      {
        "id": "bull",
        "label": "AI returns and stronger margin",
        "revenue2030B": 450,
        "operatingMarginPct": 42,
        "cashTaxPct": 18,
        "afterTaxFinancingBurdenB": 2,
        "depreciationB": 100,
        "sustainingCapexB": 85,
        "terminalMultiple": 25,
        "terminalSharesB": 2.6,
        "revenueCagrFrom2026Pct": 15.12,
        "operatingIncomeB": 189,
        "afterTaxEarningsB": 152.98,
        "ownerCashFlowProxyB": 167.98,
        "terminalEquityValueB": 4199.5,
        "presentValuePerShare": 1083.4
      }
    ],
    "reverseBaseTerminalOwnerCashB": 116.52,
    "baseValuationSensitivityUsdPerSharePer10BBurden": 55.69
  },
  "boundaries": [
    "Q3 EPS legal settlement charge is not assumed economically costless; terminal scenarios omit its future cash-settlement timing.",
    "2030 depreciation and sustaining capex are illustrative scenario assumptions, not company maintenance guidance.",
    "The framework is terminal equity cash-flow capacity; it is not a full forecast of interim free cash flow and does not model new equity or debt issuance in detail.",
    "Class C 2027 stock dividend is split-like in proportional economic ownership; future issuance may dilute investors.",
    "All share counts are stated on October 2026-equivalent combined economic unit basis.",
    "Revenue 2026 midpoint is derived from 9-month observed revenue plus Q4 company guidance midpoint."
  ]
}