{
  "title": "S&P 500 Valuation Concentration: What Does the Index Cost Without the Top 10?",
  "path": "/research/sp500-valuation-concentration",
  "publishedAt": "2026-09-20",
  "updatedAt": null,
  "dataAsOf": "2026-06-30",
  "version": "1.0",
  "snapshots": [
    {
      "date": "2024-03-31",
      "topTenForwardPe": 28.4,
      "topTenAverageForwardPe": 20.3,
      "topTenPercentOfAverage": 140,
      "remainingForwardPe": 18.3,
      "remainingAverageForwardPe": 15.7,
      "remainingPercentOfAverage": 117,
      "sp500ForwardPe": 21,
      "sp500AverageForwardPe": 16.5,
      "sp500PercentOfAverage": 127,
      "topTenMinusRemainingForwardPe": 10.1,
      "topTenPremiumVsRemainingPct": 55.2,
      "headlineMinusRemainingForwardPe": 2.7
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-30",
      "topTenForwardPe": 21.6,
      "topTenAverageForwardPe": 20.8,
      "topTenPercentOfAverage": 104,
      "remainingForwardPe": 19.6,
      "remainingAverageForwardPe": 15.9,
      "remainingPercentOfAverage": 123,
      "sp500ForwardPe": 20.4,
      "sp500AverageForwardPe": 16.9,
      "sp500PercentOfAverage": 121,
      "topTenMinusRemainingForwardPe": 2,
      "topTenPremiumVsRemainingPct": 10.2,
      "headlineMinusRemainingForwardPe": 0.8
    }
  ],
  "selectedFindings": {
    "topTenMinusRemainingForwardPe2024": 10.1,
    "topTenMinusRemainingForwardPe2026": 2,
    "spreadNarrowingForwardPe": 8.1,
    "topTenPremiumVsRemaining2024Pct": 55.2,
    "topTenPremiumVsRemaining2026Pct": 10.2,
    "premiumNarrowingPercentagePoints": 45,
    "headlineMinusRemainingForwardPe2024": 2.7,
    "headlineMinusRemainingForwardPe2026": 0.8,
    "headlineGapNarrowingForwardPe": 1.9,
    "topTenForwardPeChange": -6.8,
    "remainingForwardPeChange": 1.3,
    "sp500ForwardPeChange": -0.6,
    "topTenPercentOfAverageChange": -36,
    "remainingPercentOfAverageChange": 6,
    "sp500PercentOfAverageChange": -6
  },
  "sources": {
    "march2024Guide": "https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/132cbe13-cc82-44df-8127-b12f8a7d6c1c/JP%20Morgan%20-%20Q2%202024%20Guide%20to%20the%20Markets.pdf",
    "june2026Guide": "https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf"
  },
  "methodology": {
    "forwardPeDefinition": "Most recent price divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months under the source methodology.",
    "remainingCompanyDefinition": "The source calculates the remaining-company P/E by backing the nominal earnings and market capitalization of the top 10 out of the S&P 500.",
    "averageWindowBoundary": "Each source snapshot reports its own 1996-to-present average, so the historical average window expands between 2024 and 2026.",
    "frequencyBoundary": "The reviewed source charts begin in 1996, but this public dataset contains only exact table values from the two reviewed snapshots rather than digitized monthly chart observations.",
    "inferenceBoundary": "The comparison describes where the index's forward-P/E valuation sits across the top 10 and remaining companies at two dates. It does not establish fair value or predict subsequent returns."
  }
}