{ "title": "SpaceX at $159: What the Valuation Has to Assume", "path": "/research/spacex-valuation-reverse-dcf", "publishedAt": "2026-10-04", "dataAsOf": "2026-10-02", "rating": { "label": "Sell", "referencePriceUsd": 158.96, "referenceDate": "2026-10-02" }, "marketSnapshot": { "sharePriceUsd": 158.96, "priceAsOfDate": "2026-10-02", "july28IssuedCommonShares": 13181779945, "cursorIssuedCommonShares": 391041680, "postCursorIssuedCommonShares": 13572821625, "preExistingShareBasedCompensationAwards": 564000000, "cursorAssumedUnvestedAwards": 73493373, "expectedEchoStarShares": 261800000, "economicShareDenominator": 14472114998, "issuedCommonEquityValueUsd": 2157535725510.0, "economicEquityValueUsd": 2300487400082.08, "economicDenominatorPremiumPct": 6.625692120963089 }, "balanceSheet": { "cashAndCashEquivalentsUsd": 93522000000, "marketableSecuritiesUsd": 6487000000, "debtAndFinanceLeasesUsd": 39512000000, "netCashUsd": 60497000000, "liquidAssetsUsd": 100009000000 }, "reverseDcf": { "inputs": { "targetSharePriceUsd": 158.96, "dilutedSharesOutstanding": 14472114998, "netCashUsd": 60497000000, "baseRevenueUsd": 44680000000, "baseYear": 2026, "forecastYears": 9, "startingFcfMarginPct": 0, "horizonFcfMarginPct": 30, "discountRatePct": 9.5, "terminalGrowthRatePct": 4 }, "outputs": { "targetEquityValueUsd": 2300487400082.08, "targetEnterpriseValueUsd": 2239990400082.08, "impliedRevenueGrowthPct": 37.18821432597598, "horizonRevenueUsd": 769067384649.6138, "horizonFreeCashFlowUsd": 230720215394.88416, "explicitPeriodPresentValueUsd": 312335770365.007, "terminalPresentValueUsd": 1927654629717.075, "terminalValueSharePct": 86.05637906512627, "projection": [ {"year":1,"calendarYear":2027,"revenueUsd":61295694160.84607,"fcfMarginPct":3.3333333333333335,"freeCashFlowUsd":2043189805.3615355,"presentValueFreeCashFlowUsd":1865926762.887247}, {"year":2,"calendarYear":2028,"revenueUsd":84090468277.97626,"fcfMarginPct":6.666666666666667,"freeCashFlowUsd":5606031218.531751,"presentValueFreeCashFlowUsd":4675491518.968954}, {"year":3,"calendarYear":2029,"revenueUsd":115362211848.90692,"fcfMarginPct":10.0,"freeCashFlowUsd":11536221184.890694,"presentValueFreeCashFlowUsd":8786607295.665699}, {"year":4,"calendarYear":2030,"revenueUsd":158263358442.4649,"fcfMarginPct":13.333333333333334,"freeCashFlowUsd":21101781125.661987,"presentValueFreeCashFlowUsd":14677856497.72871}, {"year":5,"calendarYear":2031,"revenueUsd":217118675379.53638,"fcfMarginPct":16.666666666666668,"freeCashFlowUsd":36186445896.5894,"presentValueFreeCashFlowUsd":22986631541.73888}, {"year":6,"calendarYear":2032,"revenueUsd":297861233721.39844,"fcfMarginPct":20.0,"freeCashFlowUsd":59572246744.279686,"presentValueFreeCashFlowUsd":34558848598.14041}, {"year":7,"calendarYear":2033,"revenueUsd":408630507711.7084,"fcfMarginPct":23.333333333333332,"freeCashFlowUsd":95347118466.06528,"presentValueFreeCashFlowUsd":50513648551.57458}, {"year":8,"calendarYear":2034,"revenueUsd":560592896720.8623,"fcfMarginPct":26.666666666666668,"freeCashFlowUsd":149491439125.5633,"presentValueFreeCashFlowUsd":72327485911.34184}, {"year":9,"calendarYear":2035,"revenueUsd":769067384649.6138,"fcfMarginPct":30.0,"freeCashFlowUsd":230720215394.88416,"presentValueFreeCashFlowUsd":101943273686.9607} ], "multipleOf2025Revenue": 41.18385909015817 } }, "streetRevenue": { "revenue2025Usd": 18674000000, "consensus2026Usd": 44680000000, "consensus2027Usd": 113500000000, "consensus2027GrowthPct": 154.01, "required2027To2035RevenueCagrPct": 27.019695279127063 }, "q2Segments": { "connectivity": { "revenueUsd": 4291000000, "operatingIncomeUsd": 1656000000, "operatingMarginPct": 38.59240270333256, "adjustedEbitdaUsd": 2597000000, "capexUsd": 1367000000, "starlinkSubscribersMillions": 12.0, "subscriberGrowthYoYPct": 100, "enterpriseGovernmentRevenueUsd": 1806000000, "revenueGrowthYoYPct": 66 }, "ai": { "revenueUsd": 2561000000, "operatingIncomeUsd": -1257000000, "adjustedEbitdaUsd": 1146000000, "depreciationAmortizationUsd": 1885000000, "capexUsd": 15828000000, "aiSolutionsInfrastructureRevenueUsd": 2194000000, "contractedCloudSalesUsd": 14100000000, "revenueGrowthYoYPct": 247 } }, "authorScenarios": { "aggressiveOperations": {"connectivityRevenueUsd":86000000000.0,"aiRevenueUsd":357000000000.0,"spaceRevenueUsd":15000000000.0,"totalRevenueUsd":458000000000.0,"shareOfReverseDcfHorizonRevenuePct":59.552648979993386,"multipleOf2025Revenue":24.526079040376995}, "hypergrowth": {"connectivityRevenueUsd":86000000000.0,"aiRevenueUsd":661000000000.0,"spaceRevenueUsd":15000000000.0,"totalRevenueUsd":762000000000.0,"shareOfReverseDcfHorizonRevenuePct":99.08104480950864,"multipleOf2025Revenue":40.80539787940452} }, "methodology": { "shareCount": "The economic share denominator is an author valuation assumption, not a GAAP diluted-share count. It starts with issued common shares after the Cursor merger consideration, then adds the June 30 share-based compensation amount excluded from diluted EPS, Cursor unvested awards assumed at closing, and the expected EchoStar equity issuance. It excludes the separate 1.331 billion performance- and market-condition awards that had not met their conditions at June 30.", "netCash": "Net cash equals June 30, 2026 cash and cash equivalents plus marketable securities less total debt and finance leases.", "reverseDcf": "The retained output must reconcile to the canonical Grizzly Bulls revenue + margin reverse DCF engine. Revenue grows at one solved CAGR from the 2026 consensus base; FCF margin ramps linearly from 0% to 30% over nine years; terminal value uses 4% perpetual growth and a 9.5% discount rate.", "street": "The 2026 and 2027 revenue figures are current secondary-market consensus aggregates, not SpaceX guidance and not the most bullish analyst estimates.", "scenarios": "The aggressive-operations and hypergrowth segment cases are author assumptions used to compare operating scale with the reverse-DCF hurdle. They are not management guidance or consensus forecasts.", "rating": "The Sell rating is an editorial judgment at the October 2, 2026 reference price. The analysis does not claim that the stock must fall or assign a probability to a future price." }, "sources": [ {"id":"spacex-q2-2026-10q","title":"Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Q2 2026 Form 10-Q","publisher":"Space Exploration Technologies Corp. / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026052535/spcx-20260630.htm","asOfDate":"2026-06-30"}, {"id":"spacex-q2-2026-earnings-release","title":"SpaceX Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results","publisher":"Space Exploration Technologies Corp. / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026052515/earningsreleaseq22608042.htm","asOfDate":"2026-06-30"}, {"id":"spacex-cursor-closing-8k","title":"SpaceX Form 8-K: Completion of Cursor acquisition","publisher":"Space Exploration Technologies Corp. / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026056945/spcx-20260814.htm","asOfDate":"2026-08-14"}, {"id":"echostar-q2-2026-10q","title":"EchoStar Q2 2026 Form 10-Q","publisher":"EchoStar Corporation / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1415404/000110465926089370/sats-20260630x10q.htm","asOfDate":"2026-06-30"}, {"id":"spacex-ipo-prospectus","title":"SpaceX final IPO prospectus","publisher":"Space Exploration Technologies Corp. / U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission","url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026042639/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm","asOfDate":"2026-06-12"}, {"id":"spacex-starship-flight-14","title":"Starship Flight 14","publisher":"SpaceX","url":"https://www.spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-14","asOfDate":"2026-09-28"}, {"id":"yahoo-spcx-analysis","title":"Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) analyst estimates","publisher":"Yahoo Finance","url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPCX/analysis/","asOfDate":"2026-10-02"} ] }