Grizzly BullsGrizzly Bulls Models Performance Update - 2023
Table of Contents
Model Performance (2023)
| YTD | |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 (benchmark) | +24.42% |
| VIX - TA - Macro - MP Extreme | +33.89% |
| VIX - TA - Macro Advanced | +31.28% |
| VIX - TA Advanced | +25.76% |
| VIX - Advanced | +26.45% |
| 🆓 VIX - Basic | +25.9% |
| 🆓 TA - Trend Basic | +30.08% |
| 🆓 TA - MR Basic | +23.44% |
2023 was a great year for the market and an even better year for most of the Grizzly Bulls models. The market rebounded strongly from its bear market depths and is currently sitting just -1% below its nominal ATH of 4818 reached on January 4th, 2022. However, given the extreme amount of inflation we've experienced over the last two years, the real ATH adjusted for inflation would have been around 5157.
Thus, in real terms, the market remains solidly below its all-time high. It's been a painful last two years for passive investors who are still significantly underwater after accounting for the rapid increase in the cost of living. While most investors have spent the last two years trying to get back to breakeven after the Fed popped the ZIRP / QE bubble in late 2021, most Grizzly Bulls subscribers have enjoyed significantly growing their wealth:
Model Performance since Grizzly Bulls launch in Jan 2022
| Since GB Launch | |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 (benchmark) | +1.08% |
| VIX - TA - Macro - MP Extreme | +35.84% |
| VIX - TA - Macro Advanced | +27.14% |
| VIX - TA Advanced | +6.83% |
| VIX - Advanced | +3.83% |
| 🆓 VIX - Basic | +0.16% |
| 🆓 TA - Trend Basic | +6.94% |
| 🆓 TA - MR Basic | +11.2% |
When you use sophisticated algorithms to strategically hedge against large downturns in the market, you don't have to waste time recovering losses. Ideally, you even get to relive the gains on the way back up the next time around. At Grizzly Bulls, we seek positive absolute returns, positive risk-adjusted returns, and lower overall volatility than the market.
While not every signal generated by our models will be profitable, over the last two years we have delivered on those goals and produced excellent results for our subscribers. 2023 was a very bullish year for the market that did not present as many opportunities for relative outperformance as 2022, but many have learned that the market can change tune in a hurry.
Looking forward to 2024
Since the last correction ended in late October, the market has been on a torrid rally thanks to lower inflation expectations and the Fed's recent pivot to predicting two rate cuts next year in the dot plot. As the market approaches its all time highs, many are beginning to question how much staying power this young bull trend has. The economy has been incredibly resillient in the face of tightening monetary policy, so the odds of a soft landing have certainly increased. The main headwind for the bull market is very high valuations. As interest rates have started to fall, the relative valuation of stocks to bonds has begun to improve, but remains in extremely expensive territory, and other valuation indicators don't look much better.
While a short-term correction is overdue, we think the market momentum and accomodative Fed will probably outweigh valuation concerns in the medium term. However, one would be wise to expect a choppy road over the next few years. High valuations have a fantastic historical track record of predicting low to negative real returns over the long run, so we expect many market swing opportunities for the models to exploit for outperformance.
