Macroeconomic Conditions Index (MCI)

The Business Tendency Survey confidence measure captures U.S. manufacturing business sentiment from OECD business tendency surveys. The current MCI source is the OECD national confidence indicator published through FRED as a seasonally adjusted monthly percentage balance. Higher readings indicate stronger business confidence. Unscaled observations can be found from FRED here.

Since 1992, the Business Tendency Survey confidence measure has ranged between -35.20 and 29.40 with a mean of 5.46 and a median of 5.60 on an absolute basis. On the MCI's normalized 0-100 scale, the mean is 59.13 and the median is 59.33. Higher scaled values indicate stronger economic conditions.

The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles showing fluctuation of the economic activity around its long term potential level. CLIs show short-term economic movements in qualitative rather than quantitative terms. Unscaled original values can be found from OECD here.

Since 1992, the Composite Leading Indicator has ranged between 94.79 and 102.19 with a mean of 99.04 and a median of 99.95 on an absolute basis. For ease of comparison, we've normalized the absolute values on 0-100 scale. On a scaled basis, the mean is 74.68, and the median is 76.82. Both higher absolute and scaled (0 - 100) values indicate more robust economic activity.

The Composite Consumer Confidence measure summarizes U.S. household sentiment about economic conditions. The current MCI source is the OECD consumer confidence series published through FRED as a seasonally adjusted monthly percentage balance. Higher readings indicate stronger consumer confidence. Unscaled observations can be found from FRED here.

Since 1992, the Composite Consumer Confidence has ranged between 48.20 and 136.69 with a mean of 90.64 and a median of 93.71 on an absolute basis. On the MCI's normalized 0-100 scale, the mean is 47.56 and the median is 51.62. Higher scaled values indicate stronger economic conditions.

The Housing Starts is a key economic indicator that refers to the number of new residential construction projects that have begun during a specific period, usually measured on a monthly or annual basis. These projects encompass the construction of new private homes, apartment buildings, and other residential structures. Unscaled original values can be found from St. Louis Fed here.

Housing starts are a critical metric for assessing the health and vitality of the housing market and, by extension, the broader economy. The data is typically reported by government agencies, such as the U.S. Census Bureau in the United States. Housing starts are an essential component of economic analysis, as they provide insights into the demand for housing, the confidence of builders and developers, and overall economic conditions.

Since 1992, the Housing Starts has ranged between 458.00 and 2276.00 with a mean of 1332.51 and a median of 1363.00 on an absolute basis. For ease of comparison, we've normalized the absolute values on 0-100 scale. On a scaled basis, the mean is 55.32, and the median is 57.53. Both higher absolute and scaled (0 - 100) values indicate more robust economic activity.