MCI combines multiple activity, sentiment, market, inflation, and interest-rate inputs so no single economic release determines the overall regime.
Grizzly Bulls uses this indicator as one input in its systematic trading research. It provides context inside a broader rules-based process rather than acting as a standalone trading signal.
| Indicator type | Macroeconomic |
|---|---|
| Scale i | 0 - 100 |
| Available chart history | Jan 6, 2003 - Nov 6, 2026 |
MCI combines activity, sentiment, market, inflation, and interest-rate information into a single 0-100 view of broad U.S. macroeconomic conditions. The labels run from Collapse and Recession through Steady, Expansion, and Booming.
The score is designed to summarize breadth across the economy. It is not an official recession dating rule and should not be read as one.
Economic series often disagree around turning points. Housing can weaken while consumers remain confident, or financial conditions can tighten before headline activity slows.
A composite reduces dependence on any one release, while the published component views let readers inspect several of the forces behind the headline regime.
Many macroeconomic series are published after the period they measure and can later be revised. MCI therefore reflects the latest information available to the indicator process, not a final-history view that was knowable in real time.
That matters most around turning points, when a broad slowdown or recovery may become obvious only after several inputs have updated.
A healthy aggregate score can mask sharp weakness in one part of the economy, and a weak score can coexist with strength in another. Structural changes can also alter how individual inputs behave across cycles.
MCI is most useful as regime context alongside component-level evidence and narrower research such as the yield-curve recession study, not as a substitute for those details.
These figures use the normalized observations in the selected chart range, from through . Longer ranges become available only when your account has access to that history.
| Regime | Observations | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Collapse | 1 | 0.1% |
| Recession | 730 | 61.3% |
| Steady | 413 | 34.7% |
| Expansion | 46 | 3.9% |
| Booming | 0 | 0.0% |
These frequencies describe the selected historical sample. They are not probabilities for future returns or market turning points.
The component views below expose a representative subset of the economic inputs behind MCI. They help explain the broad regime without turning the public page into a reconstruction of the complete proprietary model.
The Business Tendency Survey confidence measure captures U.S. manufacturing business sentiment from OECD business tendency surveys. The current MCI source is the OECD national confidence indicator published through FRED as a seasonally adjusted monthly percentage balance. Higher readings indicate stronger business confidence. Unscaled observations can be found from FRED here.
Since 1992, the Business Tendency Survey confidence measure has ranged between -35.20 and 29.40 with a mean of 6.36 and a median of 6.00 on an absolute basis. On the MCI's normalized 0-100 scale, the mean is 60.63 and the median is 60.00. Higher scaled values indicate stronger economic conditions.
The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles showing fluctuation of the economic activity around its long term potential level. CLIs show short-term economic movements in qualitative rather than quantitative terms. Unscaled original values can be found from OECD here.
Since 1992, the Composite Leading Indicator has ranged between 94.78 and 102.20 with a mean of 99.83 and a median of 100.01 on an absolute basis. For ease of comparison, we've normalized the absolute values on 0-100 scale. On a scaled basis, the mean is 75.16, and the median is 77.61. Both higher absolute and scaled (0 - 100) values indicate more robust economic activity.
The Composite Consumer Confidence measure summarizes U.S. household sentiment about economic conditions. The current MCI source is the OECD consumer confidence series published through FRED as a seasonally adjusted monthly percentage balance. Higher readings indicate stronger consumer confidence. Unscaled observations can be found from FRED here.
Since 1992, the Composite Consumer Confidence has ranged between 48.20 and 136.69 with a mean of 85.56 and a median of 86.83 on an absolute basis. On the MCI's normalized 0-100 scale, the mean is 40.75 and the median is 42.44. Higher scaled values indicate stronger economic conditions.
The Housing Starts is a key economic indicator that refers to the number of new residential construction projects that have begun during a specific period, usually measured on a monthly or annual basis. These projects encompass the construction of new private homes, apartment buildings, and other residential structures. Unscaled original values can be found from St. Louis Fed here.
Housing starts are a critical metric for assessing the health and vitality of the housing market and, by extension, the broader economy. The data is typically reported by government agencies, such as the U.S. Census Bureau in the United States. Housing starts are an essential component of economic analysis, as they provide insights into the demand for housing, the confidence of builders and developers, and overall economic conditions.
Since 1992, the Housing Starts has ranged between 458.00 and 2276.00 with a mean of 1263.71 and a median of 1256.00 on an absolute basis. For ease of comparison, we've normalized the absolute values on 0-100 scale. On a scaled basis, the mean is 50.64, and the median is 50.40. Both higher absolute and scaled (0 - 100) values indicate more robust economic activity.
