Macroeconomic Conditions Index (MCI)

How's the economy doing right now?

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Macroeconomic Conditions Index (MCI)
Indicator TypeMacroeconomic
Scale 0 - 100
Historical Data Date RangeJan 2, 1992 - May 17, 2024
Last UpdatedMay 17, 2024 7:58 PM EST
Historical Data
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Indicator Description

The Macroeconomic Conditions Index (MCI) is a groundbreaking indicator designed to distill the complex landscape of economic activity and sentiment into a singular, insightful measure of the overall health of the economy. Abbreviated as MCI, this proprietary index amalgamates a diverse array of key indicators, providing investors, policymakers, and analysts with a holistic perspective on the prevailing macroeconomic conditions.

MCI draws its strength from the careful combination of various underlying economic activity and sentiment indicators, each meticulously chosen for its relevance and impact on the broader economic landscape. The inclusion of diverse components ensures that MCI captures both quantitative and qualitative aspects of economic health, making it a versatile tool for assessing the overall state of an economy.

Indicator Components

Below are a few of the components that make up the Macroeconomic Conditions Index. To preserve our secret sauce, we don't expose them all here, but this list gives you an understanding of some of the fundamental underpinnings.

Business Confidence Index

41.74
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The Business Confidence Index provides information on future developments, based upon opinion surveys on developments in production, orders and stocks of finished goods in the industry sector. It can be used to monitor output growth and to anticipate turning points in economic activity. Higher numbers suggest an increased confidence in near future business performance, and lower numbers indicate pessimism towards future performance. Unscaled original values can be found from OECD here.

Since 1992, the Business Confidence Index has ranged between 95.74 and 102.13 with a mean of 99.91 and a median of 99.94 on an absolute basis. For ease of comparison, we've normalized the absolute values on 0-100 scale. On a scaled basis, the mean is 62.10, and the median is 62.62. Both higher absolute and scaled (0 - 100) values indicate a higher degree of optimism on the overall economy.

Composite Leading Indicator

68.13
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The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is designed to provide early signals of turning points in business cycles showing fluctuation of the economic activity around its long term potential level. CLIs show short-term economic movements in qualitative rather than quantitative terms. Unscaled original values can be found from OECD here.

Since 1992, the Composite Leading Indicator has ranged between 92.59 and 102.21 with a mean of 99.81 and a median of 99.88 on an absolute basis. For ease of comparison, we've normalized the absolute values on 0-100 scale. On a scaled basis, the mean is 72.66, and the median is 73.54. Both higher absolute and scaled (0 - 100) values indicate more robust economic activity.

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Index

25.71
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The University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Index is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures the confidence and optimism of U.S. consumers regarding the overall state of the economy. This index is released monthly by the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, a research group within the university. Unscaled original values can be found from the University of Michigan here.

The Consumer Sentiment Index is derived from surveys conducted among a sample of U.S. households. Participants are asked about their current economic conditions, such as personal finances and job prospects, as well as their expectations for the future. The survey covers various aspects of consumer sentiment, including attitudes toward large purchases, inflation expectations, and overall economic outlook.

Since 1992, the University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Index has ranged between 50.00 and 112.00 with a mean of 85.84 and a median of 88.50 on an absolute basis. For ease of comparison, we've normalized the absolute values on 0-100 scale. On a scaled basis, the mean is 47.61, and the median is 52.86. Both higher absolute and scaled (0 - 100) values indicate a higher degree of optimism.

Housing Starts

71.20
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The Housing Starts is a key economic indicator that refers to the number of new residential construction projects that have begun during a specific period, usually measured on a monthly or annual basis. These projects encompass the construction of new private homes, apartment buildings, and other residential structures. Unscaled original values can be found from St. Louis Fed here.

Housing starts are a critical metric for assessing the health and vitality of the housing market and, by extension, the broader economy. The data is typically reported by government agencies, such as the U.S. Census Bureau in the United States. Housing starts are an essential component of economic analysis, as they provide insights into the demand for housing, the confidence of builders and developers, and overall economic conditions.

Since 1992, the Housing Starts has ranged between 478.00 and 2273.00 with a mean of 1336.06 and a median of 1375.00 on an absolute basis. For ease of comparison, we've normalized the absolute values on 0-100 scale. On a scaled basis, the mean is 55.45, and the median is 58.33. Both higher absolute and scaled (0 - 100) values indicate more robust economic activity.

National Financial Conditions Index

16.24
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The Chicago Fed's National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) is a measure designed to assess the overall financial conditions in the U.S. economy. It is produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and serves as an indicator of the ease or tightness of financial conditions, reflecting factors such as credit markets, risk perceptions, and market volatility. Unscaled original values can be found from the Chicago Fed here.

The National Financial Conditions Index is a composite index that incorporates a broad set of financial indicators. These indicators include interest rates, equity market volatility, credit spreads, and other relevant financial variables. The goal is to provide a comprehensive snapshot of the state of financial conditions and how they might impact economic activity.

Since 1992, the National Financial Conditions Index has ranged between -1.13 and 2.87 with a mean of -0.43 and a median of -0.55 on an absolute basis. For ease of comparison, we've normalized the absolute values on 0-100 scale. On a scaled basis, the mean is 17.60, and the median is 14.52. Both higher absolute and scaled (0 - 100) values indicate more robust economic activity.

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