S&P 500 Valuation Concentration: What Does the Index Cost Without the Top 10?
The top-10 valuation premium narrowed sharply while the remaining-company P/E rose.
In March 2024, the S&P 500 top 10 traded at 28.4x forward earnings versus 18.3x for the remaining companies, a 10.1x spread. By June 2026, the top 10 were at 21.6x and the remaining companies at 19.6x, shrinking the spread to 2.0x.
Top-10 forward P/E fell 6.8x while remaining-company P/E rose 1.3x
The two source tables use the same forward-P/E framing. Comparing their exact endpoint values shows very different repricing inside the index.
Forward P/E by S&P 500 cohort
Top-10 forward P/E fell from 28.4x to 21.6x. Remaining-company forward P/E rose from 18.3x to 19.6x. S&P 500 forward P/E fell from 21.0x to 20.4x.
| Snapshot | Top 10 | Remaining companies | S&P 500 | Top-10 premium vs. remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2024 | 28.4x | 18.3x | 21.0x | 10.1x (55.2%) |
| June 30, 2026 | 21.6x | 19.6x | 20.4x | 2.0x (10.2%) |
The relative-to-history story flipped
In March 2024, J.P. Morgan's table placed the top 10 at 140% of their displayed historical average and the remaining companies at 117%. By June 2026, the top 10 were at 104% of their displayed average while the remaining companies were at 123%.
| Snapshot | Top 10: latest / average | Remaining: latest / average | S&P 500: latest / average |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2024 | 28.4x / 20.3x (140%) | 18.3x / 15.7x (117%) | 21.0x / 16.5x (127%) |
| June 30, 2026 | 21.6x / 20.8x (104%) | 19.6x / 15.9x (123%) | 20.4x / 16.9x (121%) |
The headline P/E sat only 0.8x above the remaining-company P/E in June 2026
In March 2024, the full S&P 500 traded at 21.0x versus 18.3x for the remaining companies, a 2.7x difference. In June 2026, the same comparison was 20.4x versus 19.6x, only 0.8x apart.
The arithmetic matters because it separates two different questions. The index can remain above its own historical valuation even when the largest companies are no longer carrying a large premium over the rest of the index.
What this comparison does not prove
This study therefore does not rank the top 10 against the remaining companies as an investment. It measures how the valuation split changed under one consistent source framework.
For the accompanying profit concentration evidence, see the S&P 500 earnings concentration study. For the longer market-cap concentration history, see the 1965-2025 concentration study.
Methodology
- Retain the March 31, 2024 forward-P/E values of 28.4x for the top 10, 18.3x for the remaining companies, and 21.0x for the full S&P 500, along with the source table's displayed historical averages and percent-of-average values.
- Retain the June 30, 2026 forward-P/E values of 21.6x for the top 10, 19.6x for the remaining companies, and 20.4x for the full S&P 500, plus the same displayed historical-average fields.
- Subtract remaining-company P/E from top-10 P/E to calculate the valuation spread, and divide the spread by remaining-company P/E to express the top-10 premium as a percentage.
- Subtract remaining-company P/E from headline S&P 500 P/E to show how far the full-index multiple sits above the residual cohort.
- Preserve the source's residual-cohort definition and expanding 1996-to-present average window. Do not reinterpret the remaining-company series as equal-weight performance.
- Do not digitize the unlabeled monthly chart history or infer future returns from the two endpoint valuations.
Reviewed sources
Download the valuation snapshots
The CSV contains the two exact source tables plus derived cohort spreads. The JSON adds methodology boundaries and source URLs. Neither file contains a digitized version of the publishers' monthly valuation history.
Research data
- Download CSVCSVCSV downloadTabular public study data for spreadsheet analysis, independent checks, and new charts.Data snapshot June 30, 2026 · Reuse with attribution to the canonical study.
- Download JSONJSONJSON downloadStructured public study data for programmatic verification while preserving the published field names and research context.Data snapshot June 30, 2026 · Reuse with attribution to the canonical study.
Citation and reuse
When citing this study, describe the values as two exact Guide to the Markets valuation-table snapshots. Do not describe the public CSV as a complete 1996-to-2026 monthly P/E series.