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34 published studies6 research collectionsPublished September 12, 2026Last changed October 4, 2026
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Ownership & Holdings
What reviewed filings can establish about public-equity ownership, how the evidence reaches the broader billionaire universe, and where ownership form or source coverage changes the answer.
Cross-company ownership dataset · Data through September 6, 2026 · v1.0
Lee Bailey. “Billionaire Public-Equity Positions Dataset: 13 Reviewed SEC Ownership Relationships Across 12 Billionaire Profiles and 12 Companies.” Grizzly Bulls, September 10, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 6, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/billionaire-public-equity-positions
Lee Bailey. “Jensen Huang NVIDIA Ownership Snapshot: What the June 17 Form 4 Reported, and What $187 Billion at a September Price Does Not Mean.” Grizzly Bulls, September 9, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 4, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/jensen-huang-nvidia-ownership
Lee Bailey. “Billionaire Public-Equity Ownership Census: What SEC Filings Can Actually Prove About Billionaire Stock Ownership.” Grizzly Bulls, September 8, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 6, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/billionaire-public-equity-ownership-census
Companywide voting power, how that power changes through time, the legal mechanics behind enhanced-vote structures, and the difference between voting authority and share-count ownership.
Matched-denominator study · Data through August 26, 2026 · v1.0
Lee Bailey. “Founder Voting Power vs Share Ownership at 9 Public Companies: All Nine Matched Founders Had More Voting Power Than Their Disclosed Share-Count Ownership.” Grizzly Bulls, September 11, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot August 26, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/founder-voting-vs-ownership
Lee Bailey. “When Founder Supervoting Rights End at 10 Public Companies: Only Two Reviewed Companies Have a Hard Time-Based Companywide Sunset; the Rest Depend on Founder Events, Thresholds, Transfers or Holder Votes.” Grizzly Bulls, September 11, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot August 26, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/founder-supervoting-sunsets
Lee Bailey. “Billionaire Voting Power: Meta, Alphabet and Berkshire Compared: A 2026 SEC Comparison of Mark Zuckerberg, Sergey Brin and Warren Buffett.” Grizzly Bulls, September 10, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot July 14, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/billionaire-voting-power
Lee Bailey. “Founder Voting Control at 10 Public Companies: How SEC Disclosures Show 27.4% to 82.4% Founder Voting Power, and Why the Mechanism Matters.” Grizzly Bulls, September 10, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot July 31, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/founder-voting-control
Lee Bailey. “How Founder Voting Control Changed at 10 Public Companies: Five Founders Gained Voting Power, Four Lost It, and One Was Unchanged Across Reviewed SEC Disclosures.” Grizzly Bulls, September 10, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot July 31, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/founder-voting-control-change
Research about what SEC source families can support, what they cannot support, and why filing presence alone does not make a broader ownership or transaction claim ready to publish.
SEC ownership-extraction methodology study · Data through September 10, 2026 · v1.0
Lee Bailey. “SEC Ownership Evidence Funnel Across 20,834 Form 3/4/5 Candidates: Only 1,503 of 20,834 Extracted Position Candidates Were Simple Direct Non-Zero Positions.” Grizzly Bulls, September 12, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 10, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sec-ownership-evidence-funnel
How often did Form 4/5 sale candidates require footnote review, and which recurring semantics dominated candidates blocked only by that gate?
Key result
45,879 of 48,912 sale candidates (93.8%) carried a footnote-review blocker; 6,808 of 7,573 footnote-only cases used weighted-average or price-range language.
Reviewed universe
48,912 non-derivative sale candidates across 513 billionaire profiles
Primary evidence
SEC Forms 4 and 5 non-derivative sale transactions and footnotes
Lee Bailey. “SEC Sale Footnotes Across 48,912 Form 4/5 Candidates: 45,879 Sale Candidates Hit a Footnote Review Gate, and Price-Aggregation Language Dominated the Footnote-Only Cases.” Grizzly Bulls, September 12, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot August 31, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sec-sale-footnote-review
Lee Bailey. “SEC Filing Evidence for Billionaire Stock Ownership: 13 Reviewed Ownership Relationships Required Six Different Evidence Patterns; No Single Filing Type Meant the Same Thing.” Grizzly Bulls, September 11, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 6, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sec-ownership-evidence
Research about point-in-time valuation inputs, market-data timing, financial-statement normalization, private-company unit economics, and the source and capital-structure boundaries required before a valuation output is complete.
Company valuation reverse-DCF case study · Data through October 2, 2026
What revenue and free-cash-flow path is already embedded in SPCX at $158.96?
Key result
At $158.96, the reverse DCF requires about 37.19% annual revenue growth and $769.1B of 2035 revenue; 86.1% of modeled enterprise value comes from terminal value.
Reviewed universe
SpaceX capital structure, Q2 2026 operating disclosures, current revenue consensus, and a 2026–2035 reverse-DCF path
Primary evidence
SpaceX and EchoStar SEC filings, SpaceX launch disclosures, and secondary consensus market data
Lee Bailey. “SpaceX at $159: What the Valuation Has to Assume.” Grizzly Bulls, October 4, 2026. Data snapshot October 2, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/spacex-valuation-reverse-dcf
How much cash generation and EBITDA growth does Belden need for its stated post-RUCKUS leverage path to work?
Key result
At approximately $300M of 2027 FCF applied to net debt, the 2.9x target requires about $703M of adjusted EBITDA, 8.22% above the $650M transaction base.
Lee Bailey. “Belden RUCKUS Deleveraging Math: Debt, FCF, and the 2027 Hurdle: A $650M-Base Proxy Puts the 2027 EBITDA Hurdle Near $703M if About $300M of FCF Reduces Net Debt.” Grizzly Bulls, September 30, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 24, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/belden-ruckus-deleveraging-math
What does SoundThinking's market price imply about the CVR, and what ShotSpotter and SafePointe operating path would support that value?
Key result
At the 76.75M middle hurdle, 65.5M of ShotSpotter revenue requires about 563 SafePointe lane-years and roughly 760 year-end live lanes under the generous 365-lane starting assumption.
Lee Bailey. “SoundThinking CVR Math: Valuing the $3 Earnout From the Bottom Up: The First $0.50 Looks Plausible; the September 30 Price Needs Roughly $0.90-$1.05 of CVR Value Under the Reviewed Sensitivity.” Grizzly Bulls, September 30, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 30, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/soundthinking-cvr-math
Lee Bailey. “Anthropic's Economic Gross Margin Is Probably 50–60% — Not the 80%+ Headline: The 80%+ figure excludes partner revenue sharing and model training; a normalized 50–60% economic range is a more conservative underwriting base.” Grizzly Bulls, September 16, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 16, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/anthropic-gross-margin
How much of a 61-company market universe could strict SEC Companyfacts annual normalization cover without generic IFRS mapping, implicit FX conversion, or inferred issuer identity?
Key result
59 of 61 companies (96.7%) normalized under the reviewed 13-metric annual-financials schema; the two remaining cases stopped at a CAD currency-unit boundary and an unresolved issuer-identity boundary.
Reviewed universe
61 configured market companies in the September 3, 2026 measurement
Primary evidence
SEC Companyfacts annual US-GAAP facts and reviewed issuer identity
Lee Bailey. “SEC Companyfacts Annual Financial Coverage Across 61 Companies: 59 of 61 Normalized Under Strict Reviewed Rules; the Remaining Gaps Were Currency and Identity.” Grizzly Bulls, September 12, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 3, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sec-companyfacts-normalization-coverage
How often is complete reviewed net-debt evidence still insufficient for the bounded enterprise-value calculation?
Key result
3 of 9 reviewed companies had EV withheld despite complete net-debt review: 2 for noncontrolling interests and 1 for preferred equity; 6 were compatible.
Reviewed universe
9 reviewed companies with complete current net-debt evidence
Primary evidence
Issuer Forms 10-Q and 10-K financing and balance-sheet disclosures
Lee Bailey. “Enterprise Value Financing Scope Across 9 Reviewed Companies: 3 of 9 Had Enterprise Value Withheld Even After Complete Net-Debt Review.” Grizzly Bulls, September 11, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 2, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/enterprise-value-financing-scope
Lee Bailey. “Historical Market Cap: SEC Share-Count Disclosure Lag Across 21 Companies: A Median 6-Day Gap Separated the Share Date From the Filing Date, a Point-in-Time Trap for Backtests.” Grizzly Bulls, September 11, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 2, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/historical-market-cap-share-count-lag
Do share-count disclosure lags persist within the same issuer across repeated SEC filings?
Key result
Four of five reviewed issuers stayed within a one-day lag band; 13 of 16 observations (81.3%) were disclosed in 5–7 days, while Netflix ranged from 17 to 23 days.
Lee Bailey. “SEC Share-Count Disclosure Cadence Across 16 Filings: Four of Five Reviewed Issuers Stayed Within a 1-Day Lag Band, While Netflix Repeatedly Took 17–23 Days.” Grizzly Bulls, September 11, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot May 20, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/share-count-disclosure-cadence
Lee Bailey. “AI Infrastructure Capital Intensity: Capex vs. Operating Cash Flow: Cash Capex Reached 81.81% of Operating Cash Flow Across Five Large AI Infrastructure Companies, Up From 60.80%.” Grizzly Bulls, September 25, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot August 31, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/ai-infrastructure-capital-intensity
What do Applied Digital's disclosed lease, site-margin, development-cost, secured-debt, and preferred-equity terms imply about its AI data center economics?
Key result
The three disclosed campuses imply a 12.56% aggregate midpoint site-NOI yield on development cost; Macquarie preferred capital compounds at 12.75%.
Reviewed universe
900 MW with detailed economics · 1410 MW contracted portfolio
Primary evidence
Applied Digital SEC filings and SEC-filed investor presentation
Lee Bailey. “Applied Digital AI Data Center Economics: Campus Yields and Capital Stack: Three Disclosed Campuses Imply 11.8%-13.4% Midpoint Site-NOI Yields, but Macquarie's 12.75% Preferred Changes the Equity Math.” Grizzly Bulls, September 25, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 25, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/applied-digital-ai-data-center-economics
Lee Bailey. “Megacap Buybacks and Diluted Share Count: Are Repurchases Shrinking Shares?: Seven of Nine Megacaps Had $227.475B of Observed Repurchases; Five of Six Positive-Buyback Issuers Reduced Diluted Shares.” Grizzly Bulls, September 25, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 21, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/megacap-buybacks-and-share-count
Do the companies that dominate S&P 500 fundamentals carry a similar share of S&P 500 market value?
Key result
Overall top-10 issuer market weight is 40.45%. The top-10 net-income cohort gap is -0.53 percentage points, while the top-10 capex cohort gap is -30.79 points.
Reviewed universe
500 matched issuers · 6 reviewed fundamental comparisons
Primary evidence
Reviewed Grizzly Bulls Fundamental Concentration Atlas plus dated iShares IVV holdings
Lee Bailey. “S&P 500 Fundamental vs. Market-Cap Concentration: The Top 10 Issuers Carry 40.45% of Market Weight, but the Top 10 Capex Contributors Carry Only 19.89%.” Grizzly Bulls, September 22, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 21, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sp500-fundamental-vs-market-cap-concentration
What do the historical weight, earnings, valuation, and forward-return concentration studies say when read together?
Key result
June 2025 top-10 weight was 38.15%, the March 2026 cap-minus-earnings gap was 4.7 points, the June 2026 forward-P/E spread was 2.0x, and the forward-return correlation fell to -0.04 when 1965 was excluded.
Reviewed universe
4 published concentration studies · 16 normalized metrics
Primary evidence
Published Grizzly Bulls concentration studies backed by S&P Dow Jones Indices and J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Lee Bailey. “S&P 500 Concentration Research Series: Weight, Earnings, Valuation, and Forward Returns: Four studies separate historical top-10 weight, earnings support, valuation premium, and forward-return sensitivity instead of reducing concentration to one score.” Grizzly Bulls, September 21, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot June 30, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sp500-concentration-series
Lee Bailey. “S&P 500 Fundamental Concentration Atlas: Revenue, Profits, Cash Flow, and Balance Sheets: The Top 10 Generate 26.32% of Covered Revenue but 50.68% of Capital Spending; Financials Hold 74.79% of Covered Liabilities.” Grizzly Bulls, September 21, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 21, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sp500-fundamental-concentration-atlas
Lee Bailey. “S&P 500 Concentration and Forward Returns: Does a Top-Heavy Market Predict the Next Decade?: Across six decade starts, the sample correlation between starting top-10 concentration and the next 10-year S&P 500 price return was -0.72; excluding 1965 reduced it to -0.04.” Grizzly Bulls, September 20, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot June 30, 2025. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sp500-concentration-forward-returns
Lee Bailey. “S&P 500 Concentration History: How the Top 10 Changed From 1965 to 2025: Top-10 concentration fell from 38.24% in 1965 to 17.81% in 2015, then rose 20.34 percentage points in one decade to 38.15% in 2025.” Grizzly Bulls, September 20, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot June 30, 2025. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/historical-sp500-concentration
How much of the S&P 500 top 10's market-cap concentration was accompanied by trailing earnings concentration in matched March 2024 and March 2026 snapshots?
Key result
Top-10 trailing-earnings share rose from 25.5% to 33.2%, an increase of 7.7 percentage points, while the cap-minus-earnings gap narrowed to 4.7 points.
Reviewed universe
2 same-method Guide to the Markets snapshots
Primary evidence
J.P. Morgan Asset Management Guide to the Markets, citing FactSet and Standard & Poor's
Lee Bailey. “S&P 500 Earnings Concentration: Are the Top 10 Backed by Profits?: From March 2024 to March 2026, the top 10's trailing-earnings share rose from 25.5% to 33.2% while market-cap share rose from 33.5% to 37.9%.” Grizzly Bulls, September 20, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot March 31, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sp500-earnings-concentration
Lee Bailey. “S&P 500 Valuation Concentration: What Does the Index Cost Without the Top 10?: The top-10 forward-P/E premium over the remaining companies narrowed from 10.1x in March 2024 to 2.0x in June 2026.” Grizzly Bulls, September 20, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot June 30, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sp500-valuation-concentration
How concentrated was the S&P 500 in September 2026, and how much of its weight sat in a conservative company cohort directly tied to AI infrastructure and cloud-platform investment?
Key result
The top 10 security lines were 38.09% of index weight; the conservative AI-linked cohort was 29.46%, or 77.3% of top-10 weight.
Lee Bailey. “S&P 500 AI Concentration: How Much of the Index Is AI-Linked?: The Top 10 Security Lines Were 38.09% of the Index; a Conservative Seven-Company AI-Linked Cohort Was 29.46%.” Grizzly Bulls, September 14, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 9, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sp500-ai-concentration
What did the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread imply in May 2023 under the maintained New York Fed model, and what was the realized NBER classification twelve months later?
Key result
The May 2023 spread averaged -1.73 percentage points and reconstructs to 71.4% recession probability for May 2024; NBER did not classify that target month as recession as of the study cutoff.
Reviewed universe
22 May 2023 daily T10Y3M observations plus one 12-month target month
Primary evidence
FRED T10Y3M, New York Fed yield-curve model, and NBER business-cycle chronology
Lee Bailey. “Yield Curve Recession Signal: Reconstructing the May 2023 Warning: A -1.73 Percentage-Point Monthly Average Implied 71.4% Recession Probability Twelve Months Ahead; May 2024 Was Not an NBER Recession.” Grizzly Bulls, September 13, 2026. Version 1.0. Data snapshot September 12, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/yield-curve-recession-signal
Statistical benchmarks for backtesting, Sharpe-ratio interpretation, strategy selection, and the noisy paths that can occur even when a long-run edge exists.
Backtest selection-bias benchmark · Data through September 17, 2026
How do backtest length and research search breadth jointly change the Sharpe ratio that pure luck can produce?
Key result
With 100 independent zero-edge trials, the median winning Sharpe falls from 2.48 after one year to 0.78 after ten years; 1,000 ten-year trials push the median winner back to 1.01.
Reviewed universe
24 exact null-model scenarios across six sample lengths and four independent search sizes
Primary evidence
Exact Student-t null benchmark and published Sharpe-ratio selection literature
Lee Bailey. “How Long Should You Backtest a Trading Strategy?” Grizzly Bulls, September 17, 2026. Data snapshot September 17, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/how-long-should-you-backtest
Lee Bailey. “How Many Losing Months Are Normal for a Trading Strategy?” Grizzly Bulls, September 17, 2026. Data snapshot September 17, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sharpe-ratio-losing-streaks
Lee Bailey. “Sharpe Ratio and Probability of Loss.” Grizzly Bulls, September 17, 2026. Data snapshot September 17, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/sharpe-ratio-loss-probability
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