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A small set of pinned studies selected to show the range of the publication, from source methodology and ownership to markets and valuation.
Best orientation to the Grizzly Bulls evidence philosophy: a broad universe, measurable source reach, and an explicit rule that missing filing evidence is not zero ownership.
19.3% had reviewed SEC position evidence; source reach was the first blocker for 77.5%.
Best entry point to the governance series: one common voting-power denominator, 10 reviewed companies, and the company-specific mechanisms that make raw share counts misleading.
Read study →Best source-method guide: shows what Forms 3/4, Schedule 13, proxy ownership tables, and filing-history metadata can and cannot establish.
Read study →Best entry point beyond ownership and governance: a 21-company primary-source study showing why historical valuation inputs need separate observation and public-availability clocks.
Read study →A current company-specific valuation case study combining filing-backed capital structure and dilution with an interactive reverse DCF to show what the October 2 market price already requires.
Read study →A systematic-market forecast case study with reproducible arithmetic, a missed target month, and explicit limits on what one realized outcome can prove.
Read study →Best entry point to the concentration series: it separates historical weight, earnings support, valuation, and forward-return sensitivity while preserving each study's date and denominator.
Read study →Browse the complete reviewed publication, ordered by publication date.
How much of FedEx's post-spin improvement is already visible, and what International margin recovery is embedded in the current share price?
The October 13, 2026 FDX close of $290.59 corresponds to about a 6.15% 2029 International margin under the study's base Domestic and valuation assumptions, between calendar-2025 adjusted International margin of 2.9% and management's 8% target.
How do AVMV and SPY differ in valuation, concentration, factor context, AI transmission, and assumption-driven 5- and 10-year return outcomes?
The retained sponsor snapshots put AVMV at 16.51x earnings with 12.94% in its top 10 positions versus SPY at 25.13x and 39.04%; the modeled return leader changes across growth and terminal-valuation assumptions.
How do PepsiCo's cash conversion, North American price/volume reset, GLP-1 exposure, and capital allocation change the owner-cash-flow growth required by the October 9, 2026 market price?
Using $9.95B of analytical owner cash flow, 2.5% terminal growth, and a 9% discount rate, the October 9 equity value requires about 3.69% annual owner-cash-flow growth over 10 years; the result moves materially with the starting cash-flow and discount-rate assumptions.
How much operating deterioration is embedded in Accenture's $196.64 October 7, 2026 share price after accounting for AI productivity, organic growth, recurring acquisitions, and normalized owner earnings?
At $196.64, the base 9% discount-rate framework requires about 0.69% annual revenue growth if the horizon normalized owner-earnings margin is 10%; a 10% discount-rate stress case requires about 3.26%.
What revenue growth and mature economic free-cash-flow margins are required to reconcile Adobe's $238.79 October 5, 2026 share price, and how much AI-related operating deterioration can occur before that valuation stops reconciling?
At $238.79, a 20% mature economic FCF margin requires about 3.10% annual revenue growth under the base 9.5% discount-rate and 3.0% terminal-growth assumptions.
What revenue and free-cash-flow path is already embedded in SPCX at $158.96?
At $158.96, the reverse DCF requires about 37.19% annual revenue growth and $769.1B of 2035 revenue; 86.1% of modeled enterprise value comes from terminal value.
How much cash generation and EBITDA growth does Belden need for its stated post-RUCKUS leverage path to work?
At approximately $300M of 2027 FCF applied to net debt, the 2.9x target requires about $703M of adjusted EBITDA, 8.22% above the $650M transaction base.
What does SoundThinking's market price imply about the CVR, and what ShotSpotter and SafePointe operating path would support that value?
At the 76.75M middle hurdle, 65.5M of ShotSpotter revenue requires about 563 SafePointe lane-years and roughly 760 year-end live lanes under the generous 365-lane starting assumption.
How much operating cash flow are five large U.S. cloud and AI infrastructure companies reinvesting in total-company cash capital expenditures?
Cohort cash capex rose to 81.81% of operating cash flow from 60.80%, a +21.01 point change.
What do Applied Digital's disclosed lease, site-margin, development-cost, secured-debt, and preferred-equity terms imply about its AI data center economics?
The three disclosed campuses imply a 12.56% aggregate midpoint site-NOI yield on development cost; Macquarie preferred capital compounds at 12.75%.
How much are the largest S&P 500 companies spending on stock repurchases, and are diluted weighted-average share counts falling at the same time?
$227.475B of repurchases were observed across seven covered issuers; 5 of 6 positive-buyback issuers also reduced diluted shares.
Do the companies that dominate S&P 500 fundamentals carry a similar share of S&P 500 market value?
Overall top-10 issuer market weight is 40.45%. The top-10 net-income cohort gap is -0.53 percentage points, while the top-10 capex cohort gap is -30.79 points.
What do the historical weight, earnings, valuation, and forward-return concentration studies say when read together?
June 2025 top-10 weight was 38.15%, the March 2026 cap-minus-earnings gap was 4.7 points, the June 2026 forward-P/E spread was 2.0x, and the forward-return correlation fell to -0.04 when 1965 was excluded.
How concentrated are the operating fundamentals of the companies represented in the S&P 500?
The top 10 account for 26.32% of covered revenue and 50.68% of covered capital spending; Financials account for 74.79% of covered liabilities.
What 10-year S&P 500 price returns followed historically high and low top-10 concentration starting points?
Starting concentration and subsequent decade return had a -0.72 sample correlation; excluding June 1965 reduced it to -0.04.
How did the weight of the S&P 500 top 10 change from 1965 to 2025, and what do the matched decade returns say about concentration as a market signal?
Top-10 concentration fell from 38.24% in 1965 to 17.81% in 2015, then rose 20.34 percentage points to 38.15% in 2025.
How much of the S&P 500 top 10's market-cap concentration was accompanied by trailing earnings concentration in matched March 2024 and March 2026 snapshots?
Top-10 trailing-earnings share rose from 25.5% to 33.2%, an increase of 7.7 percentage points, while the cap-minus-earnings gap narrowed to 4.7 points.
How much higher was the S&P 500 top 10 forward P/E than the remaining companies in March 2024 and June 2026, and how did that valuation split change?
The top-10 minus remaining-company forward-P/E spread narrowed from 10.1x to 2.0x, while remaining-company P/E rose 1.3x.
How do backtest length and research search breadth jointly change the Sharpe ratio that pure luck can produce?
With 100 independent zero-edge trials, the median winning Sharpe falls from 2.48 after one year to 0.78 after ten years; 1,000 ten-year trials push the median winner back to 1.01.
How often should an investor expect consecutive losing months for strategies with different true Sharpe ratios and track-record lengths?
A true Sharpe of 1 has a 90.8% chance of at least one three-month losing streak over five years and a 56.8% chance of at least one four-month streak.
What does a true annualized Sharpe ratio imply about the modeled chance of negative aggregate excess return over different horizons?
A true Sharpe of 1 implies a 38.64% modeled chance of negative one-month excess return and 15.87% over one year under the stated assumptions.
What gross margin should an investor underwrite for Anthropic when the 80%+ headline excludes partner revenue sharing and model training?
Grizzly Bulls uses 50–60% as a normalized economic underwriting range, not a claimed audited GAAP margin.
How concentrated was the S&P 500 in September 2026, and how much of its weight sat in a conservative company cohort directly tied to AI infrastructure and cloud-platform investment?
The top 10 security lines were 38.09% of index weight; the conservative AI-linked cohort was 29.46%, or 77.3% of top-10 weight.
What did the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread imply in May 2023 under the maintained New York Fed model, and what was the realized NBER classification twelve months later?
The May 2023 spread averaged -1.73 percentage points and reconstructs to 71.4% recession probability for May 2024; NBER did not classify that target month as recession as of the study cutoff.
How much of a 61-company market universe could strict SEC Companyfacts annual normalization cover without generic IFRS mapping, implicit FX conversion, or inferred issuer identity?
59 of 61 companies (96.7%) normalized under the reviewed 13-metric annual-financials schema; the two remaining cases stopped at a CAD currency-unit boundary and an unresolved issuer-identity boundary.
What survives when exact SEC identity review and conservative Forms 3/4/5 extraction are applied to a selected group of billionaire profiles?
1,503 of 20,834 candidates (7.2%) were simple direct non-zero positions; footnote review accounted for 50.6% of candidates.
How often did Form 4/5 sale candidates require footnote review, and which recurring semantics dominated candidates blocked only by that gate?
45,879 of 48,912 sale candidates (93.8%) carried a footnote-review blocker; 6,808 of 7,573 footnote-only cases used weighted-average or price-range language.
How often is complete reviewed net-debt evidence still insufficient for the bounded enterprise-value calculation?
3 of 9 reviewed companies had EV withheld despite complete net-debt review: 2 for noncontrolling interests and 1 for preferred equity; 6 were compatible.
How does founder total voting power compare with issuer-disclosed share-count ownership when the same disclosure supports both?
9 of 9 matched founders had voting power above disclosed share-count ownership; Alphabet remains explicitly unmatched.
How long after a share count's stated as-of date did the SEC filing make that count public across 21 reviewed companies?
The median disclosure lag was 6 calendar days; 5 of 21 observations (23.8%) were at least 10 days, with a 17-day maximum.
What can the SEC source families behind the reviewed billionaire ownership dataset actually establish?
6 source patterns appear across 13 relationships; 4 relationships use multiple source families.
Do share-count disclosure lags persist within the same issuer across repeated SEC filings?
Four of five reviewed issuers stayed within a one-day lag band; 13 of 16 observations (81.3%) were disclosed in 5–7 days, while Netflix ranged from 17 to 23 days.
When do enhanced founder voting rights convert or end across the selected 10-company cohort?
2 of 10 reviewed companies have a hard time-based companywide sunset; other mechanisms depend on events, thresholds, transfers, or holder votes.
What reviewed billionaire public-equity relationships can be published without flattening unlike securities and filing scopes?
13 reviewed relationships preserve legal security classes, ownership form, exclusions, evidence scope, and observation dates.
How much total company voting power did three prominent billionaires hold at their reviewed SEC observation dates?
The highest reviewed observation was 60.8% of total company voting power; 1 observation exceeded 50%.
How much total company voting power did founders hold across 10 selected public companies, and which mechanisms created it?
4 of 10 reviewed founders exceeded 50% of total voting power; the highest observation was 82.4%.
How did founder voting power change between two comparable issuer disclosures for the same 10-company cohort?
5 increased, 4 decreased, and 1 was unchanged; the study does not assign transaction causes.
What did Jensen Huang's June 17 NVIDIA filing report, and what changes when that dated position is valued later?
812,004,746 NVIDIA shares were reported in the June 17 relationship; 91.4% were held indirectly.
How much of the billionaire universe can reviewed SEC ownership evidence actually support?
19.3% had reviewed SEC position evidence; source reach was the first blocker for 77.5%.
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