Grizzly Bulls

Share Dilution & Buyback Calculator

Model whether recurring repurchases offset gross share issuance and how the resulting share-count path changes earnings or free cash flow per share versus an unchanged-share-count control.

Share-count assumptions

The share-count math is identical. This choice only changes how the company-level and per-share outputs are labeled.
Use a positive starting metric. This is scenario math, not a GAAP diluted-EPS calculation.
Applied to total company earnings or free cash flow before dividing by the modeled share count.
Enter gross issuance before buybacks. It can represent stock compensation, acquisitions, employee plans, offerings, or another assumption you want to test.
Repurchased shares equal annual buyback dollars divided by this modeled average price path.
The calculator allows one through thirty years.

Share-count and per-share result

1,052.04MEnding shares outstanding
+5.2%Cumulative net share-count change
+1.02%Annualized share-count change
49%Gross issuance offset by repurchased shares
$7.65Ending earnings per share
$8.05Ending earnings per share with unchanged shares
-4.95%Cumulative per-share effect from share-count change
-1.01%Annualized per-share effect from share-count change
$5,000MTotal modeled buyback spending

Gross issuance totals 102.04M shares and modeled repurchases total 50M shares. The resulting net change is +52.04M over the entered horizon.

Annual dilution and buyback path

The company-level earnings path is the same in both cases. The final two columns isolate how the modeled share-count path changes per-share results versus holding the starting share count constant.

YearBeginning sharesGross issuanceAvg. repurchase priceShares repurchasedEnding sharesNet share changeEarnings / shareUnchanged-share controlShare-count effect
11,000M20M$100.0010M1,010M+1%$5.45$5.50-0.99%
21,010M20.2M$100.0010M1,020.2M+1.01%$5.93$6.05-1.98%
31,020.2M20.4M$100.0010M1,030.6M+1.02%$6.46$6.66-2.97%
41,030.6M20.61M$100.0010M1,041.22M+1.03%$7.03$7.32-3.96%
51,041.22M20.82M$100.0010M1,052.04M+1.04%$7.65$8.05-4.95%

How the model works

Buyback dollars do not tell you how many shares disappear. The modeled share reduction depends on the average price paid, while gross issuance can continue at the same time. That is why the calculator keeps issuance and repurchases separate before calculating the net share-count path.

Gross shares issued = beginning shares × gross issuance %
Shares repurchased = annual buyback dollars ÷ average repurchase price
Ending shares = beginning shares + issued shares - repurchased shares
Per-share metric = company-level earnings or FCF ÷ ending shares
Share-count effect = modeled per-share metric ÷ unchanged-share-count metric - 1

A company can spend heavily on repurchases and still dilute shareholders if gross issuance exceeds the shares retired. Conversely, repurchases above gross issuance create a mechanical per-share tailwind even if company-level earnings or free cash flow follow the exact same operating path.

Where this calculator stops

This is not a GAAP diluted-EPS calculator. It does not apply weighted-average share timing, the treasury-stock method, if-converted accounting, option exercise assumptions, convertible dilution, contingently issuable shares, or anti-dilution rules. Treat the starting share count and gross issuance rate as your own scenario inputs.

The model also does not subtract buyback spending from cash, add debt financing, estimate interest income forgone, apply repurchase excise taxes, enforce authorization limits, or decide whether repurchasing stock at the entered price creates value. The entered company-level earnings or free-cash-flow path is independent of the buyback budget.

Reporting context