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SoundThinking market-implied CVR hurdle by illustrative cash-close date

Nominal expected CVR value required to support the September 30, 2026 SSTI close under the reviewed 12% return, 95% close-probability, and $5.47 broken-deal sensitivity.
Published September 30, 2026Data through September 30, 2026CVR dollars per shareSource study v1.0
Line chart showing required nominal SoundThinking CVR value rising from about 89 cents for a November 20 cash close to about one dollar and one cent for a December 31 cash close.
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Figure provenance

Research data date
September 30, 2026
Primary evidence
SoundThinking merger agreement and September 30 market snapshot; Grizzly Bulls sensitivity.
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Lee Bailey. “SoundThinking market-implied CVR hurdle by illustrative cash-close date.” Figure from SoundThinking CVR Math: Valuing the $3 Earnout From the Bottom Up. Grizzly Bulls, September 30, 2026. Data snapshot September 30, 2026. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/figures/ssti-cvr-market-implied-hurdle

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<figure>
  <a href="https://grizzlybulls.com/research/figures/ssti-cvr-market-implied-hurdle" rel="nofollow">
    <img src="https://grizzlybulls.com/research/figures/ssti-cvr-market-implied-hurdle.svg" alt="Line chart showing required nominal SoundThinking CVR value rising from about 89 cents for a November 20 cash close to about one dollar and one cent for a December 31 cash close." loading="lazy" />
  </a>
  <figcaption>Source: <a href="https://grizzlybulls.com/research/soundthinking-cvr-math" rel="nofollow">Grizzly Bulls Research</a></figcaption>
</figure>

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