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Starting top-10 concentration vs. subsequent 10-year S&P 500 price return

Embed the six historical starting-concentration observations and their subsequent 10-year annualized S&P 500 price returns.
Published September 21, 2026Data through June 30, 2025Recommended height 520px

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<iframe src="https://grizzlybulls.com/embed/research/sp500-concentration-forward-returns?theme=auto" title="Starting top-10 concentration vs. subsequent 10-year S&amp;P 500 price return" loading="lazy" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" style="width:100%;height:520px;border:0;overflow:hidden"></iframe>

Research source

-0.04 correlation excluding June 1965. The full six-observation sample is -0.72, showing the relationship is highly sensitive to one starting point.

The widget is a distribution view of S&P 500 Concentration and Forward Returns: Does a Top-Heavy Market Predict the Next Decade?. Use the full study for methodology, evidence, and limitations.

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