Starting top-10 concentration vs. subsequent 10-year S&P 500 price return

Six non-overlapping decade starts from June 1965 through June 2015.

Published September 21, 2026Data through June 30, 2025X: top-10 index weight; Y: annualized S&P 500 price returnSource study v1.0

Scatter plot comparing starting S&P 500 top-10 concentration with the following 10-year annualized S&P 500 price return across six decade starts.

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Figure provenance

Canonical study: S&P 500 Concentration and Forward Returns: Does a Top-Heavy Market Predict the Next Decade?
Research data date: June 30, 2025
Primary evidence: S&P Dow Jones Indices, In the Shadows of Giants

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Lee Bailey. “Starting top-10 concentration vs. subsequent 10-year S&P 500 price return.” Figure from S&P 500 Concentration and Forward Returns: Does a Top-Heavy Market Predict the Next Decade?. Grizzly Bulls, September 21, 2026. Data snapshot June 30, 2025. https://grizzlybulls.com/research/figures/sp500-starting-concentration-next-decade-return

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    <img src="https://grizzlybulls.com/research/figures/sp500-starting-concentration-next-decade-return.svg" alt="Scatter plot comparing starting S&amp;P 500 top-10 concentration with the following 10-year annualized S&amp;P 500 price return across six decade starts." loading="lazy" />
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